Risk Disclaimer

1. Trading carries a high risk of losing money

Trading foreign exchange, contracts for difference, commodities, and cryptocurrencies carries a high level of risk and is not suitable for everyone. You can lose more than you expect, and you should never trade with money you cannot afford to lose entirely.

Brokers in the UK and EU are required to publish the percentage of their own retail clients who lose money on CFDs. The figures they publish are typically somewhere around 70–80%. Treat that as the base rate you are trying to beat, not as a problem that applies only to other people.

Leverage multiplies losses as readily as gains. A position sized against a small deposit can be closed out by a move that looks minor on a chart.

2. Backtests are simulations, not results

Every strategy report on this site is a historical simulation. No real money was at risk in producing it. A backtest answers one narrow question — what these particular rules would have done on this particular data, under these particular cost assumptions — and nothing more.

Known limitations that apply to all of them:

• Hindsight. The rules were written by someone who already knew what the market did. Choosing what to test at all is a decision made with hindsight, and no methodology removes that entirely.
• Overfitting. Optimising parameters on historical data will always improve the historical result. The site separates in-sample from out-of-sample periods and selects on parameter plateaus rather than single best passes to limit this, but limiting is not eliminating.
• Execution. Simulated fills are not real fills. Real trading brings slippage, requotes, widened spreads around news, partial fills, and outages. These are modelled approximately at best.
• Costs. Commission is modelled at a specific rate on a specific broker’s terms. Yours will differ, and a strategy with a thin edge can be turned into a losing one by a cost difference that looks trivial.
• Data. Historical tick data contains gaps and errors, and a broker’s own feed will not match it exactly.
• Edges decay. A pattern that worked for years can stop working, often without any warning visible in the data.

3. Past performance says little about the future

This is the oldest warning in finance and it is still the most ignored. A profitable backtest, a good year, or a rising equity curve on this site is not a prediction. Strategies published here as passing their quality gates may still lose money in future, and some of them will.

4. The forward test is demo money

The forward test tracker shows strategies running on demo accounts. No real capital is deployed.

Demo trading is a genuine step beyond a backtest, because the trades are placed forward in time on live prices rather than chosen with hindsight. But it is still not live trading: demo servers fill orders more generously than real ones, there is no market impact, and there is none of the pressure that changes how people behave when the money is theirs. Demo results should be read as an upper bound.

5. Nothing here is a recommendation

The research does not consider your financial position, your objectives, your tax situation, or how much risk you can bear. A strategy that suits one person can be entirely wrong for another.

If you want advice on whether something is suitable for you, consult someone authorised to give it. You can check whether a firm or person is authorised on the FCA register at register.fca.org.uk.

6. Automated trading has its own failure modes

Running a strategy automatically does not make it safer. Expert Advisors and similar programs can fail in ways manual trading does not:

• a platform, VPS, or internet outage can leave positions unmanaged;
• a broker configuration difference can change behaviour silently;
• a bug can repeat an error thousands of times faster than a human would;
• a strategy can keep trading confidently through conditions it was never tested on.

Any automated system needs monitoring, hard risk limits outside the strategy itself, and a way to stop it quickly.

7. Your decisions are your own

You are solely responsible for your trading decisions and their consequences. By using this site you accept that neither the operator nor anyone associated with it is liable for any loss arising from decisions you make on the basis of what you read here. This section should be read with the liability terms in the Terms of Use.

8. Availability in your country

Rules on trading leveraged products differ by country, and some products described here are restricted or unavailable in certain jurisdictions, including for retail clients in parts of Europe and North America. It is your responsibility to know what applies where you live.